Nvidia’s Earnings Day - A History of Wins Meets a Pivotal Moment

$NVDA could get more expensive

Today, February 26, 2025,

After the market closes, Nvidia ($NVDA) will drop its Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings report—a moment Wall Street has been buzzing about for weeks. The chip giant has built an enviable track record of not just meeting but crushing earnings expectations, often sending its share price soaring in the aftermath. This time, with the Nasdaq ($QQQ) finding its footing near the 100-day moving average and broader market eyes locked on AI’s trajectory, Nvidia’s report feels like a much-needed shot of clarity for a tech sector craving stability. Leading the charge, as always, is the company’s charismatic CEO, Jensen Huang, whose bold style and unshakable confidence have become as much a part of Nvidia’s story as its GPUs.

A Legacy of Earnings Beats

Nvidia’s rise from a gaming hardware niche player to an AI powerhouse has been punctuated by a string of earnings blowouts. Rewind to May 2024: analysts expected $5.58 per share and $24.59 billion in revenue for Q1 fiscal 2025; Nvidia delivered $6.12 and $26.04 billion, sparking a 7% after-hours jump. Fast forward to August 2024—Q2 forecasts of $0.64 EPS and $28.7 billion in revenue got trampled by $0.68 and $30 billion, cementing its dominance. Last November’s Q3 report? A forecasted $0.75 EPS and $33.16 billion became $0.81 and $35.08 billion, with data center revenue alone hitting $30.8 billion. Each time, the stock responded, climbing from $50 (adjusted w stock split) in early 2023 to a staggering $134 by mid-February 2025, adding over $2.8 trillion to its market cap in two years.

This isn’t just a fluke—it’s a pattern driven by insatiable demand for Nvidia’s chips, powering everything from ChatGPT to self-driving cars. The company’s guidance has consistently outpaced analyst estimates, and today’s consensus—$0.85 EPS and $38.34 billion in revenue—feels like another bar Nvidia’s poised to leap over. Investors have come to expect the unexpected, and history suggests they won’t be disappointed.

Jensen Huang: The Face of Confidence

At the helm stands Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s leather-jacket-clad visionary, whose rockstar persona has made him a tech icon. With his signature black jacket and a knack for bold predictions, Huang doesn’t just lead Nvidia—he embodies its swagger. His image screams confidence, whether he’s unveiling the next-gen Blackwell chip or declaring AI the “next industrial revolution.” During last quarter’s earnings call, he casually dropped that Blackwell was in “full production” and that “every customer is racing to be first to market,” words that sent shivers of excitement through shareholders. Huang’s not just selling chips; he’s selling a future, and his cool-headed certainty amid market turbulence—like the recent DeepSeek AI scare—keeps the faithful coming back.

Today’s earnings call will likely feature Huang in peak form, blending technical mastery with showmanship. Investors will hang on his every word, especially his guidance for Q1 2026. If he signals that Blackwell’s rollout is accelerating or that hyperscalers like Meta ($65 billion capex) and Amazon ($100 billion+) are doubling down, expect the market to erupt.

A Healthy Reset in Sight

After a wild ride—up 136% in the past year but down 11% from January’s peak—Nvidia’s stock could use a breather, and today might deliver just that. The market’s been jittery, with consumer confidence dipping and tariff talks swirling, but this report feels like a chance for a healthy reset. Analysts predict a 73% revenue jump year-over-year, fueled by AI infrastructure demand, and even whispers of a beat could steady the ship. The stock’s trading at a forward P/E of 29, a bargain compared to peers like Broadcom (35) or Arm (76), suggesting room to run if the numbers dazzle.

QQQ and the Bigger Picture

The broader Nasdaq, tracked by the QQQ ETF, has been flirting with its 100-day moving average—a key technical level it bounced off recently. Nvidia, with its $3.3 trillion market cap, is a linchpin for the index, and today’s report could set the tone. A beat and bullish guidance might propel QQQ past resistance, igniting a tech rally. A miss—or tepid outlook—could drag it back, amplifying downside risk. Posts on X this morning reflect the stakes: “$NVDA down -2.86% pre-earnings, $QQQ -1.26% as markets price in uncertainty… Beat = Nasdaq surge? Miss = Tech selloff.” Volatility’s coming, and Nvidia’s the spark.

The Bottom Line

Nvidia’s earnings today aren’t just a report card—they’re a referendum on AI’s staying power and tech’s resilience. With a history of defying gravity, a CEO who oozes confidence, and a market hungry for good news, the stage is set for another blockbuster. Whether it’s a healthy consolidation or a springboard to new highs, one thing’s clear: when Jensen Huang steps up to the mic, the world will be watching. Buckle up.